Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 04:30

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: Vancouver Whitecaps · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Vancouver Whitecaps1.99

Houston Dynamo0.87

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Vancouver Whitecaps Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver Whitecaps 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDDLLD

Houston Dynamo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo (6 last)

Houston Dynamo1-0Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps1-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo0-3Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo1-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps3-4Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo4-1Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver Whitecaps 1473 · Houston Dynamo 1566

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1473 vs 1566).
H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.8	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:36 +6’	1.48	4.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
18/08/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-1 HT 1-0	Houston Dynamo
17/07/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	0-3 HT 0-2	Vancouver Whitecaps
19/09/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
21/07/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-4 HT 0-2	Houston Dynamo
21/09/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	4-1 HT 2-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vancouver Whitecaps

LWWDLDDLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
08/08	Juarez FC Leagues Cup	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
05/08	Atlante Leagues Cup	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
14/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
09/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Houston Dynamo

LWDDWDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
16/07	America de Cali Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
20/05	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (63%). Probabilities: Vancouver Whitecaps 63%, draw 22%, Houston Dynamo 15%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Vancouver Whitecaps 1.99 · Houston Dynamo 0.87), with a 58% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.