Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 04:30

Prediction: San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy

Team pages: San Diego FC · LA Galaxy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

San Diego FC1.81

LA Galaxy1.14

1X2

53% 24% 23%

San Diego FC Draw LA Galaxy

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

San Diego FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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LA Galaxy 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

San Diego FC 2–0 LA Galaxy (2 last)

San Diego FC2-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy0-2San Diego FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Diego FC 1529 · LA Galaxy 1494

	San Diego FC	Draw	LA Galaxy
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours San Diego FC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Diego FC	LA Galaxy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.05
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	1.75	4.00	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25	1.88	4.05	3.64

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Diego FC 2–0–0 LA Galaxy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	2-1 HT 1-1	LA Galaxy
24/02/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	0-2 HT 0-0	San Diego FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Diego FC	LA Galaxy
Los Angeles FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
FC Dallas	1-0 W	0-0 D
Seattle Sounders	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: San Diego FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Diego FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
02/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
23/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
24/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	2-4	2	6	L
17/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	3-3	7	4	D
14/05	Austin FC USA MLS	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
10/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D

LA Galaxy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
18/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
24/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
17/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
14/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Diego FC win (53%). Probabilities: San Diego FC 53%, draw 24%, LA Galaxy 23%.

How many goals are expected in San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy?

The model expects 2.96 goals (San Diego FC 1.81 · LA Galaxy 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs LA Galaxy?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.