Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 04:30

Prediction: Portland Timbers vs Austin FC

Team pages: Portland Timbers · Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Portland Timbers2.26

Austin FC1.28

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Portland Timbers Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Austin FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLLWD

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers 3–2–1 Austin FC (6 last)

Austin FC0-0Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-0Austin FC
Portland Timbers0-1Austin FC
Austin FC0-2Portland Timbers
Austin FC1-2Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers2-2Austin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1539 · Austin FC 1482

	Portland Timbers	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	59%	21%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers (rating 1539 vs 1482).
H2H favours Portland Timbers: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.49 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.92

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +4’	1.60	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25	1.59	4.49	4.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 3–2–1 Austin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers
02/03/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
03/10/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	0-1 HT 0-1	Austin FC
30/05/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
18/09/23 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
07/05/23 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	2-2 HT 1-0	Austin FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers	Austin FC
San Diego FC	3-1 W	0-5 L
Seattle Sounders	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Dallas	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
23/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
18/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-2	2-2	9	3	D

Austin FC

DLLLWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
11/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (58%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 58%, draw 22%, Austin FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Portland Timbers 2.26 · Austin FC 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.