Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: Charlotte FC vs DC United

Team pages: Charlotte FC · DC United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Charlotte FC1.74

DC United1.13

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Charlotte FC Draw DC United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWWLW

DC United 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charlotte FC 4–2–0 DC United (6 last)

DC United0-1Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC2-1DC United
DC United2-2Charlotte FC
DC United0-3Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC1-0DC United
Charlotte FC0-0DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte FC 1535 · DC United 1499

	Charlotte FC	Draw	DC United
Our model	51%	26%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlotte FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte FC	DC United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	3.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +4’	1.83	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte FC 4–2–0 DC United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-1 HT 0-1	Charlotte FC
17/07/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-1 HT 1-0	DC United
22/05/25 USA US Open Cup	DC United	2-2 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
20/10/24 USA MLS	DC United	0-3 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
16/06/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-0 HT 1-0	DC United
17/09/23 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	0-0 HT 0-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	39	15	43
2	Inter Miami CF	19	11	5	3	46	36	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	29	25	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	Charlotte FC	19	8	4	7	32	28	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	46	45	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	30	41	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	27	30	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	31	48	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	27	31	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	26	33	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	25	36	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
15	Atlanta United	19	4	3	12	21	34	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte FC	DC United
Chicago Fire	1-2 L	1-3 L
Toronto FC	3-1 W	2-1 W
New York City FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Charlotte FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W
12/08	Pachuca Leagues Cup	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
08/08	Atlas Leagues Cup	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
05/08	Unam Pumas Leagues Cup	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L

DC United

WWDLDDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
10/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/04	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-2	7	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte FC vs DC United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte FC win (51%). Probabilities: Charlotte FC 51%, draw 25%, DC United 24%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte FC vs DC United?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Charlotte FC 1.74 · DC United 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs DC United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.