Football · USA MLS · 31/08, 01:00

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas

Team pages: St. Louis City SC · FC Dallas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

St. Louis City SC1.88

FC Dallas1.26

1X2

51% 25% 25%

St. Louis City SC Draw FC Dallas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWDW

FC Dallas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLDWWL

Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 1–3–2 FC Dallas (6 last)

FC Dallas1-1St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC1-1FC Dallas
FC Dallas3-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC2-1FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC0-0FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1586 · FC Dallas 1540

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	FC Dallas
Our model	51%	25%	25%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1586 vs 1540).
H2H favours FC Dallas: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	FC Dallas
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.84
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:29 +6’	1.83	3.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +1’	1.93	3.84	3.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 1–3–2 FC Dallas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA MLS	FC Dallas	1-1 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC
07/09/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Dallas
20/07/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-0 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
28/07/24 Leagues Cup	St. Louis City SC	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Dallas
16/06/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-0 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
07/04/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes	3-1 W	3-2 W
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	4-3 W
Colorado Rapids	1-0 W	2-1 W
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	0-0 D
Austin FC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St. Louis City SC

WDWWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W

FC Dallas

WLWWDLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
10/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (51%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 51%, draw 25%, FC Dallas 25%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas?

The model expects 3.13 goals (St. Louis City SC 1.88 · FC Dallas 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs FC Dallas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.