Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: Inter Miami CF vs Toronto FC

Team pages: Inter Miami CF · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Inter Miami CF2.53

Toronto FC1.18

1X2

66% 19% 15%

Inter Miami CF Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Inter Miami CF 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLLL

Toronto FC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Inter Miami CF 4–2–0 Toronto FC (6 last)

Toronto FC2-4Inter Miami CF
Toronto FC1-1Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF1-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-1Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF4-3Toronto FC
Inter Miami CF3-1Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Inter Miami CF 1531 · Toronto FC 1457

	Inter Miami CF	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	66%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Miami CF (rating 1531 vs 1457).
H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Inter Miami CF	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.2	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +18’	1.42	4.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter Miami CF 4–2–0 Toronto FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-4 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF
27/09/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF
07/04/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	1-1 HT 1-1	Toronto FC
05/10/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Inter Miami CF
09/08/24 Leagues Cup	Inter Miami CF	4-3 HT 3-2	Toronto FC
18/07/24 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	3-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	39	15	43
2	Inter Miami CF	19	11	5	3	46	36	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	29	25	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	Charlotte FC	19	8	4	7	32	28	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	46	45	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	30	41	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	27	30	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	31	48	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	27	31	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	26	33	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	25	36	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
15	Atlanta United	19	4	3	12	21	34	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Inter Miami CF	Toronto FC
CF Montreal	1-0 W	0-0 D
Chicago Fire	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Inter Miami CF (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Inter Miami CF

WWWWWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
13/08	Leon Leagues Cup	1-0	2-3	11	5	L
09/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
06/08	Atletico San Luis Leagues Cup	4-1	4-2	1	1	W
02/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	2-2	5	3	D
26/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	3-2	8	2	W
25/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	4-4	6-4	4	9	W
18/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
14/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	5-3	8	5	W

Toronto FC

DLLLLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
06/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
02/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	1-1	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Inter Miami CF vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Inter Miami CF win (66%). Probabilities: Inter Miami CF 66%, draw 19%, Toronto FC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Inter Miami CF vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Inter Miami CF 2.53 · Toronto FC 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Inter Miami CF vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.