Prediction: CF Montreal vs LA Galaxy
Team pages: CF Montreal · LA Galaxy
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
CF Montreal1.47
LA Galaxy1.23
1X2
CF Montreal
Draw
LA Galaxy
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CF Montreal
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
LA Galaxy
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CF Montreal
1–1–4
LA Galaxy
(6 last)
- LA Galaxy4-0CF Montreal
- LA Galaxy2-1CF Montreal
- CF Montreal0-1LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy2-0CF Montreal
- CF Montreal3-2LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy0-0CF Montreal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1474 · LA Galaxy 1483
| CF Montreal | Draw | LA Galaxy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours LA Galaxy: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CF Montreal | LA Galaxy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.9 | 2.3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 1–1–4 LA Galaxy
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/22 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 4-0 HT 2-0 | CF Montreal |
| 22/09/19 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 2-1 HT 1-0 | CF Montreal |
| 21/05/18 USA MLS | CF Montreal | 0-1 HT 0-0 | LA Galaxy |
| 08/04/17 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CF Montreal |
| 29/05/16 USA MLS | CF Montreal | 3-2 HT 1-1 | LA Galaxy |
| 13/09/15 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CF Montreal |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City SC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 25 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 24 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 36 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 48 | 14 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CF Montreal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | DC United USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 26/07 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 13/07 | Vancouver FC Canada Championships |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 09/07 | Vancouver FC Canada Championships |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | DC United USA MLS |
1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 7 | L |
| 14/05 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
LA Galaxy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/07 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Club America America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs LA Galaxy?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Montreal win (42%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 42%, draw 27%, LA Galaxy 31%.
How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs LA Galaxy?
The model expects 2.7 goals (CF Montreal 1.47 · LA Galaxy 1.23), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs LA Galaxy?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.