Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

New York Red Bulls1.52

Chicago Fire2

1X2

28% 24% 48%

New York Red Bulls Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Chicago Fire 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 2–2–2 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire1-3New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire1-0New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-1Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire2-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls0-0Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire2-2New York Red Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1480 · Chicago Fire 1562

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	29%	23%	48%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire (rating 1480 vs 1562).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	2.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.90

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +15’	3.30	3.90	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 2–2–2 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-3 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls
27/07/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-0 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
06/04/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-1 HT 2-1	Chicago Fire
15/09/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-1 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
14/04/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	0-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Fire
27/01/24 America Friendlies	Chicago Fire	2-2	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	39	15	43
2	Inter Miami CF	19	11	5	3	46	36	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	29	25	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	Charlotte FC	19	8	4	7	32	28	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	46	45	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	30	41	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	27	30	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	31	48	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	27	31	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	26	33	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	25	36	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
15	Atlanta United	19	4	3	12	21	34	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Chicago Fire
Charlotte FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
New York City FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York Red Bulls

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
09/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
30/04	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L

Chicago Fire

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Cruz Azul Leagues Cup	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
10/08	Santos Laguna Leagues Cup	0-1	3-1	7	5	W
07/08	Necaxa Leagues Cup	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
09/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chicago Fire win (48%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 28%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 48%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.52 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.52 · Chicago Fire 2), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.