Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake

Team pages: Orlando City SC · Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Orlando City SC1.83

Real Salt Lake1.7

1X2

40% 24% 35%

Orlando City SC Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWLDD

Real Salt Lake 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDDWWD

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 2–2–2 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Real Salt Lake4-0Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC0-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake0-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC2-2Real Salt Lake

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1501 · Real Salt Lake 1518

	Orlando City SC	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	41%	24%	36%
Market	40%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	1.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.80

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:54 +3’	2.30	3.80	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 2–2–2 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/23 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	4-0 HT 2-0	Orlando City SC
01/03/20 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
14/04/19 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
06/05/18 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-1 HT 0-1	Real Salt Lake
01/07/17 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-1 HT 0-1	Orlando City SC
06/03/16 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	2-2 HT 0-1	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Orlando City SC

DWLWWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
13/08	Atletico San Luis Leagues Cup	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
09/08	Leon Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
06/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
20/05	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	4-0	4-1	7	6	W
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Real Salt Lake

WDWLLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
12/08	Juarez FC Leagues Cup	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
09/08	Atlante Leagues Cup	1-0	4-0	1	4	W
05/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L
16/07	Burnley World Club Friendlies	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
24/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (40%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 40%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 35%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Orlando City SC 1.83 · Real Salt Lake 1.7), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.