Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 02:30

Prediction: Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: Austin FC · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Austin FC1.64

Philadelphia Union1.64

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Austin FC Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Austin FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Philadelphia Union 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Austin FC 0–2–1 Philadelphia Union (3 last)

Austin FC2-2Philadelphia Union
Austin FC1-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union3-2Austin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austin FC 1485 · Philadelphia Union 1500

	Austin FC	Draw	Philadelphia Union
Our model	37%	25%	37%
Market	36%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austin FC	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:15 +7’	2.55	3.40	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 0–2–1 Philadelphia Union

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Philadelphia Union
24/01/24 America Friendlies	Austin FC	1-1	Philadelphia Union
21/01/23 World Club Friendlies	Philadelphia Union	3-2 HT 1-1	Austin FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Austin FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Club America Leagues Cup	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
10/08	Puebla Leagues Cup	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
07/08	Tijuana Leagues Cup	2-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
11/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	4	7	D

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
14/08	Santos Laguna Leagues Cup	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
10/08	Necaxa Leagues Cup	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
07/08	Cruz Azul Leagues Cup	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Austin FC win (37%). Probabilities: Austin FC 37%, draw 26%, Philadelphia Union 37%.

How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Austin FC 1.64 · Philadelphia Union 1.64), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.