Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 02:30

Prediction: Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew

Team pages: Nashville SC · Columbus Crew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Nashville SC1.7

Columbus Crew0.98

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Nashville SC Draw Columbus Crew

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nashville SC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDLWLW

Columbus Crew 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Nashville SC 3–2–1 Columbus Crew (6 last)

Columbus Crew0-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-0Columbus Crew
Nashville SC3-0Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew2-2Nashville SC
Columbus Crew2-0Nashville SC
Nashville SC2-2Columbus Crew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nashville SC 1548 · Columbus Crew 1501

	Nashville SC	Draw	Columbus Crew
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1548 vs 1501).
H2H favours Nashville SC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nashville SC	Columbus Crew
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:17 +5’	1.73	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nashville SC 3–2–1 Columbus Crew

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	0-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
11/02/26 America Friendlies	Nashville SC	1-0	Columbus Crew
17/07/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	3-0 HT 2-0	Columbus Crew
29/05/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-2 HT 0-1	Nashville SC
04/07/24 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-0 HT 1-0	Nashville SC
31/03/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-2 HT 2-1	Columbus Crew

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	19	13	4	2	39	15	43
2	Inter Miami CF	19	11	5	3	46	36	38
3	New England Revolution	19	9	3	7	29	25	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	Charlotte FC	19	8	4	7	32	28	28
6	FC Cincinnati	19	7	6	6	46	45	27
7	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
8	New York Red Bulls	19	7	4	8	30	41	25
9	DC United	19	5	9	5	27	30	24
10	Orlando City SC	19	6	3	10	31	48	21
11	Columbus Crew	19	5	5	9	27	31	20
12	Toronto FC	19	4	8	7	26	33	20
13	CF Montreal	19	4	5	10	25	36	17
14	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
15	Atlanta United	19	4	3	12	21	34	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nashville SC	Columbus Crew
Inter Miami CF	4-1 W	2-2 D
Atlanta United	1-0 W	2-0 W
New York City FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nashville SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nashville SC

WWWWLDLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
13/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/08	Atletico San Luis Leagues Cup	3-1	4-1	3	4	W
06/08	Leon Leagues Cup	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
23/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W

Columbus Crew

WWDLWDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	13	3	L
12/08	Unam Pumas Leagues Cup	1-1	1-1	10	7	D
08/08	Pachuca Leagues Cup	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
05/08	Atlas Leagues Cup	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
02/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
26/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
23/07	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/07	Burnley Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
21/05	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nashville SC win (54%). Probabilities: Nashville SC 54%, draw 25%, Columbus Crew 21%.

How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Nashville SC 1.7 · Columbus Crew 0.98), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.