Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 02:30

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: St. Louis City SC · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

St. Louis City SC1.61

Houston Dynamo1.24

1X2

45% 26% 28%

St. Louis City SC Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWWDW

Houston Dynamo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDWWWW

Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo (6 last)

St. Louis City SC2-2Houston Dynamo
St. Louis City SC2-3Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC3-0Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo0-0St. Louis City SC
Houston Dynamo1-0St. Louis City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1568 · Houston Dynamo 1575

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.6	4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:15 +6’	2.05	3.60	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 USA US Open Cup	St. Louis City SC	2-2 HT 1-2	Houston Dynamo
31/08/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-3 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
29/06/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC
06/10/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	3-0 HT 1-0	Houston Dynamo
05/05/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	0-0 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC
28/02/24 CONCACAF Champions Cup	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	Houston Dynamo
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	0-3 L
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	1-0 W
Sporting Kansas City	3-2 W	2-0 W
Austin FC	3-0 W	3-0 W
DC United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St. Louis City SC

WWDDWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
20/05	Houston Dynamo USA US Open Cup	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	10	W

Houston Dynamo

LWDDWDWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
16/07	America de Cali Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
20/05	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (45%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 45%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 28%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.85 goals (St. Louis City SC 1.61 · Houston Dynamo 1.24), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.