Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 03:30

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Dallas

Team pages: Vancouver Whitecaps · FC Dallas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Vancouver Whitecaps2.07

FC Dallas0.94

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Vancouver Whitecaps Draw FC Dallas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver Whitecaps 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Dallas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2–1 FC Dallas (6 last)

FC Dallas2-3Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Dallas1-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps3-0FC Dallas
Vancouver Whitecaps1-2FC Dallas
FC Dallas0-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps0-0FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver Whitecaps 1472 · FC Dallas 1557

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	FC Dallas
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	63%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1472 vs 1557).
H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver Whitecaps	FC Dallas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.8	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:22	1.48	4.33	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2–1 FC Dallas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-3 HT 1-2	Vancouver Whitecaps
02/11/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	1-1 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
27/10/25 USA MLS Play-Offs	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Dallas
19/10/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Dallas
16/03/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	0-1 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
08/09/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
08/08	Juarez FC Leagues Cup	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
05/08	Atlante Leagues Cup	0-1	0-1	8	1	L
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
14/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
09/07	Cavalry FC Canada Championships	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

FC Dallas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Toluca Leagues Cup	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
09/08	Chivas Guadalajara Leagues Cup	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
06/08	Queretaro Leagues Cup	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
10/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Dallas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (63%). Probabilities: Vancouver Whitecaps 63%, draw 22%, FC Dallas 15%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Dallas?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Vancouver Whitecaps 2.07 · FC Dallas 0.94), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Dallas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.