Football · USA MLS · 23/08, 04:30

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

San Jose Earthquakes1.77

Minnesota United1.39

1X2

46% 25% 29%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Minnesota United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 1–1–4 Minnesota United (6 last)

San Jose Earthquakes4-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United4-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes0-1Minnesota United
San Jose Earthquakes1-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-0San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United1-1San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1433 · Minnesota United 1457

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Minnesota United: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	3.1 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:15 +8’	2.05	3.70	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 1–1–4 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 USA US Open Cup	San Jose Earthquakes	4-2 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
13/07/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	4-1 HT 3-0	San Jose Earthquakes
09/03/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 HT 0-1	Minnesota United
01/09/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-2 HT 1-1	Minnesota United
21/07/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-0 HT 1-0	San Jose Earthquakes
01/10/23 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-1 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Jose Earthquakes	Minnesota United
Colorado Rapids	0-2 L	0-1 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Minnesota United (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
04/07	Tijuana Club Friendly List	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
21/05	Colorado Rapids USA US Open Cup	0-2	0-2	9	5	L
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L
14/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-3	6	2	L
10/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Minnesota United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
12/08	Atlante Leagues Cup	0-1	3-1	3	5	W
08/08	Tigres UANL Leagues Cup	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
05/08	Juarez FC Leagues Cup	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Jose Earthquakes win (46%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 46%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 29%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3.16 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 1.77 · Minnesota United 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.