Football · USA MLS · 24/08, 01:00

Prediction: Atlanta United vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: Atlanta United · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

Atlanta United2.17

Sporting Kansas City1.27

1X2

56% 23% 20%

Atlanta United Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDLLWW

Sporting Kansas City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Atlanta United 2–1–2 Sporting Kansas City (5 last)

Atlanta United1-3Sporting Kansas City
Atlanta United3-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City0-3Atlanta United
Atlanta United0-2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-1Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1474 · Sporting Kansas City 1457

	Atlanta United	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.31 ★
2	4.33 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 4.9% Pinnacle margin 4.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:36 +7’	1.70	3.90	4.33
14:21 +5’	1.70	3.90	4.50▲
06:19 +2’	1.70	4.00▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:01	1.66	4.33	4.52
09:49 +2’	1.67▲	4.25▼	4.51▼
06:21	1.67	4.26▲	4.51
13:03 +1’	1.67	4.25▼	4.52▲
01:28 +1’	1.69▲	4.31▲	4.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 2–1–2 Sporting Kansas City

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/24 World Club Friendlies	Atlanta United	1-3	Sporting Kansas City
27/02/22 USA MLS	Atlanta United	3-1 HT 2-0	Sporting Kansas City
06/05/19 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-3 HT 0-1	Atlanta United
10/05/18 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-2 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
07/08/17 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	20	12	2	6	29	24	38
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	19	11	4	4	40	18	37
3	Los Angeles FC	21	10	4	7	35	21	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	20	10	3	7	38	28	33
5	FC Dallas	20	9	6	5	38	29	33
6	St. Louis City SC	20	8	6	6	28	26	30
7	Colorado Rapids	20	9	1	10	30	25	28
8	Real Salt Lake	19	8	4	7	33	30	28
9	Portland Timbers	20	8	3	9	37	36	27
10	LA Galaxy	21	6	7	8	25	30	25
11	Minnesota United	20	6	7	7	22	28	25
12	Seattle Sounders	19	7	3	9	21	26	24
13	San Diego FC	20	6	6	8	34	32	24
14	Austin FC	20	5	5	10	25	39	20
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United	2-1 W	2-1 W
New York Red Bulls	2-1 W	1-2 L
LA Galaxy	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

WLDLLDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
03/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	3-1	3	7	W

Sporting Kansas City

LWWLLWLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
14/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
10/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-4	0-6	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (56%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 56%, draw 23%, Sporting Kansas City 20%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 3.44 goals (Atlanta United 2.17 · Sporting Kansas City 1.27), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.