Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 03:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Real Salt Lake1.62

Los Angeles FC1.43

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Real Salt Lake Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDDLLL

Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDLLDD

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 2–1–3 Los Angeles FC (6 last)

Los Angeles FC3-1Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles FC4-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake1-4Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-0Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC0-1Real Salt Lake

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1464 · Los Angeles FC 1534

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	41%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Los Angeles FC (rating 1464 vs 1534).
H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.8	2.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.70

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.54 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +11’	2.25	3.70	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:37	2.54	3.70	2.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 2–1–3 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Real Salt Lake
22/09/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	4-1 HT 2-1	Real Salt Lake
18/09/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	1-4 HT 0-2	Los Angeles FC
18/07/24 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Real Salt Lake
02/03/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-0 HT 3-0	Los Angeles FC
02/10/23 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	Los Angeles FC
Colorado Rapids	0-1 L	0-1 L
Portland Timbers	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Los Angeles FC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

WWDLLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L
24/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
14/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	3-0	4	1	W

Los Angeles FC

LWWWWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
23/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
18/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
25/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
18/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	11	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (41%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 41%, draw 26%, Los Angeles FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Real Salt Lake 1.62 · Los Angeles FC 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.