Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 02:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · New York Red Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Seattle Sounders1.89

New York Red Bulls1.24

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Seattle Sounders Draw New York Red Bulls

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDD

New York Red Bulls 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWLLDL

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 4–2 New York Red Bulls (6 last)

Seattle Sounders1-0New York Red Bulls
Seattle Sounders4-2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders3-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders2-1New York Red Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1401 · New York Red Bulls 1462

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	New York Red Bulls
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York Red Bulls (rating 1401 vs 1462).
H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	New York Red Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.8	3.1 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +10’	1.80	3.80	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +2’	1.88	3.90	3.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 4–0–2 New York Red Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/23 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-0 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
16/09/19 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	4-2 HT 2-1	New York Red Bulls
14/06/18 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-1 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
20/03/17 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	3-1 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
20/06/16 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
31/05/15 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-1 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Seattle Sounders	New York Red Bulls
Chicago Fire	2-2 D	1-1 D
Philadelphia Union	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Seattle Sounders (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

LLLLLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
25/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
17/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	5	L

New York Red Bulls

WDWLLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (52%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 52%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 24%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.89 · New York Red Bulls 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs New York Red Bulls?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.