Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 04:30

Prediction: Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United

Team pages: Portland Timbers · Minnesota United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Portland Timbers1.76

Minnesota United1.36

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Portland Timbers Draw Minnesota United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLWDL

Minnesota United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDDDLWD

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers 1–2–3 Minnesota United (6 last)

Minnesota United2-0Portland Timbers
Minnesota United1-1Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers1-1Minnesota United
Portland Timbers3-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-1Portland Timbers
Minnesota United4-1Portland Timbers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1503 · Minnesota United 1476

	Portland Timbers	Draw	Minnesota United
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Minnesota United: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers	Minnesota United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.21 ★
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +1’	2.00	3.75	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +1’	2.21	3.64	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 1–2–3 Minnesota United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-0 HT 1-0	Portland Timbers
31/08/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-1 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers
20/07/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	1-1 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
30/06/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	3-2 HT 1-2	Minnesota United
19/05/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-1 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
02/07/23 USA MLS	Minnesota United	4-1 HT 2-0	Portland Timbers

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers	Minnesota United
San Diego FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Real Salt Lake	2-1 W	1-1 D
San Jose Earthquakes	1-3 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers

LLWDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
23/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
18/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	4	L

Minnesota United

LLDLDDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (46%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 46%, draw 25%, Minnesota United 29%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Portland Timbers 1.76 · Minnesota United 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.