Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 04:30

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: Vancouver Whitecaps · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Vancouver Whitecaps2.19

St. Louis City SC0.94

1X2

65% 20% 15%

Vancouver Whitecaps Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver Whitecaps 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWLWW

St. Louis City SC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1–1 St. Louis City SC (6 last)

Vancouver Whitecaps3-2St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC0-0Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City SC1-4Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps4-3St. Louis City SC
Vancouver Whitecaps3-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC3-1Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver Whitecaps 1517 · St. Louis City SC 1577

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	66%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1517 vs 1577).
H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver Whitecaps	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.8	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Pinn 1.43
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.05 ★
2	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 6.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +6’	1.42	4.75	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:35 +1’	1.41	4.96	6.22
02:33 +1’	1.43▲	5.05▲	6.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1–1 St. Louis City SC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-2 HT 1-1	St. Louis City SC
20/04/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
14/07/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-4 HT 1-2	Vancouver Whitecaps
30/06/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	4-3 HT 1-2	St. Louis City SC
05/10/23 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-0 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC
28/05/23 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	3-1 HT 2-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver Whitecaps	St. Louis City SC
Sporting Kansas City	3-0 W	1-1 D
Houston Dynamo	0-1 L	2-1 W
Los Angeles FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vancouver Whitecaps

WLWLDDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
14/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-2	6	7	W

St. Louis City SC

WDWWWWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (65%). Probabilities: Vancouver Whitecaps 65%, draw 20%, St. Louis City SC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Vancouver Whitecaps 2.19 · St. Louis City SC 0.94), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.