Football · USA MLS · 05/09, 01:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs Nashville SC

Team pages: New York City FC · Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

New York City FC1.48

Nashville SC1.28

1X2

41% 27% 32%

New York City FC Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWDLLD

Nashville SC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York City FC 3–1–2 Nashville SC (6 last)

Nashville SC2-1New York City FC
New York City FC2-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC2-2New York City FC
New York City FC3-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-0New York City FC
New York City FC2-1Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York City FC 1494 · Nashville SC 1563

	New York City FC	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1494 vs 1563).
H2H favours New York City FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.2	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.57
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
01:37 +1’	2.25	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:07 +1’	2.58	3.57	2.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 3–1–2 Nashville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-1 HT 1-1	New York City FC
17/08/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Nashville SC
31/05/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-2 HT 2-0	New York City FC
06/10/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-1 HT 3-0	Nashville SC
23/06/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-0 HT 1-0	New York City FC
16/04/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	21	10	4	7	33	26	34
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	21	7	6	8	35	30	27
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Atlanta United	21	6	3	12	25	36	21
13	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
14	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
15	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	Nashville SC
New England Revolution	1-1 D	3-0 W
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	3-2 W
New York Red Bulls	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nashville SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York City FC

WWDLWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
14/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
10/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	1	W

Nashville SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
23/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
14/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (41%). Probabilities: New York City FC 41%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 32%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 2.76 goals (New York City FC 1.48 · Nashville SC 1.28), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.