Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: Charlotte FC · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Charlotte FC1.47

Houston Dynamo1.21

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Charlotte FC Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Houston Dynamo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charlotte FC 2–1 Houston Dynamo (3 last)

Houston Dynamo1-0Charlotte FC
Houston Dynamo1-2Charlotte FC
Houston Dynamo1-2Charlotte FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte FC 1546 · Houston Dynamo 1568

	Charlotte FC	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlotte FC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte FC	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.37 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +2’	2.15	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:58	2.37	3.47	2.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte FC 2–0–1 Houston Dynamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/06/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
08/08/23 Leagues Cup	Houston Dynamo	1-2 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
04/07/22 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-2 HT 0-1	Charlotte FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	21	4	3	14	20	51	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte FC	Houston Dynamo
DC United	3-1 W	1-1 D
New England Revolution	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
20/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
10/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	2-2	7	5	D

Houston Dynamo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte FC win (43%). Probabilities: Charlotte FC 43%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 30%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Charlotte FC 1.47 · Houston Dynamo 1.21), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.