Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · CF Montreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

Philadelphia Union2.37

CF Montreal1.12

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Philadelphia Union Draw CF Montreal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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CF Montreal 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 4–2 CF Montreal (6 last)

CF Montreal1-2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2-4CF Montreal
Philadelphia Union2-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2-0CF Montreal
CF Montreal4-2Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1502 · CF Montreal 1507

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	CF Montreal
Our model	64%	20%	16%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	CF Montreal
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.9	2.1 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Pinn 1.54 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.52
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +2’	1.45	4.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:56 +2’	1.54	4.52	5.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 4–0–2 CF Montreal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-2 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
11/02/26 America Friendlies	Philadelphia Union	2-4 HT 2-1	CF Montreal
17/07/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-1 HT 1-1	CF Montreal
04/05/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-2 HT 1-1	Philadelphia Union
10/08/24 Leagues Cup	Philadelphia Union	2-0 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
30/06/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	4-2 HT 1-2	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	21	10	4	7	33	26	34
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	21	7	6	8	35	30	27
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Atlanta United	21	6	3	12	25	36	21
13	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
14	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
15	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	CF Montreal
Inter Miami CF	2-2 D	0-1 L
Columbus Crew	1-1 D	2-1 W
New England Revolution	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CF Montreal (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L
10/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	3	L

CF Montreal

DLDDLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
20/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
16/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
26/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
23/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
17/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
24/05	DC United USA MLS	1-2	4-4	4	7	D
16/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	0-2	16	7	L
14/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-1	2-2	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (64%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 64%, draw 20%, CF Montreal 16%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?

The model expects 3.49 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.37 · CF Montreal 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.