Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: Toronto FC · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Toronto FC1.42

Chicago Fire1.73

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Toronto FC Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDWDW

Chicago Fire 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWDD

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 0–2–4 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire2-1Toronto FC
Chicago Fire2-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire1-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-4Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire1-0Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1492 · Chicago Fire 1572

	Toronto FC	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	31%	25%	44%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire (rating 1492 vs 1572).
H2H favours Chicago Fire: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.25 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +2’	3.00	3.80	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:56 +2’	2.99	3.69	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 0–2–4 Chicago Fire

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-1 HT 1-1	Toronto FC
05/10/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-2 HT 0-1	Toronto FC
15/03/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Chicago Fire
29/09/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-1 HT 0-1	Toronto FC
16/06/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-4 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire
16/07/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	21	10	4	7	33	26	34
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	21	7	6	8	35	30	27
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Atlanta United	21	6	3	12	25	36	21
13	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
14	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
15	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	Chicago Fire
Inter Miami CF	2-1 W	2-3 L
Charlotte FC	3-3 D	2-1 W
New York City FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
DC United	1-2 L	3-1 W
CF Montreal	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chicago Fire (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC

LLLDDLDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L

Chicago Fire

WWWLLWWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chicago Fire win (44%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 31%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 44%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Toronto FC 1.42 · Chicago Fire 1.73), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.