Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 02:30

Prediction: Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

Team pages: Austin FC · San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Austin FC1.81

San Jose Earthquakes1.54

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Austin FC Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Austin FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLWDW

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLLLD

Head-to-head

Austin FC 2–2–2 San Jose Earthquakes (6 last)

San Jose Earthquakes5-1Austin FC
San Jose Earthquakes2-1Austin FC
Austin FC3-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-1Austin FC
San Jose Earthquakes1-1Austin FC
Austin FC4-3San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austin FC 1475 · San Jose Earthquakes 1417

	Austin FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC (rating 1475 vs 1417).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austin FC	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.23
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.04 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +3’	2.15	3.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +2’	2.31	3.65	2.92
02:33	2.23▼	3.67▲	3.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 2–2–2 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	5-1 HT 0-1	Austin FC
19/10/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-1 HT 0-1	Austin FC
31/08/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	3-1 HT 2-0	San Jose Earthquakes
09/07/25 USA US Open Cup	San Jose Earthquakes	1-1 HT 1-0	Austin FC
26/05/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-1 HT 1-1	Austin FC
07/04/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	4-3 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Austin FC	San Jose Earthquakes
Portland Timbers	2-1 W	3-1 W
Seattle Sounders	2-1 W	2-3 L
FC Dallas	1-2 L	2-3 L
Houston Dynamo	0-3 L	0-0 D
St. Louis City SC	0-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: San Jose Earthquakes (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Austin FC

LLLWLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L

San Jose Earthquakes

LLWLDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L
14/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Austin FC win (43%). Probabilities: Austin FC 43%, draw 25%, San Jose Earthquakes 32%.

How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Austin FC 1.81 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.