Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 02:30

Prediction: FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City

Team pages: FC Dallas · Sporting Kansas City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

FC Dallas2.47

Sporting Kansas City1.11

1X2

66% 19% 14%

FC Dallas Draw Sporting Kansas City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dallas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLDWWL

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLDLL

Head-to-head

FC Dallas 3–1–2 Sporting Kansas City (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City2-4FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-1Sporting Kansas City
FC Dallas2-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-1FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City3-2FC Dallas
Sporting Kansas City2-1FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1537 · Sporting Kansas City 1430

	FC Dallas	Draw	Sporting Kansas City
Our model	66%	19%	14%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1537 vs 1430).
H2H favours FC Dallas: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dallas	Sporting Kansas City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	0.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.52 ★
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +5’	1.40	4.75	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:35	1.50	4.66	5.26
02:33	1.52▲	4.73▲	5.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 3–1–2 Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/06/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-4 HT 1-1	FC Dallas
30/03/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-1 HT 2-1	Sporting Kansas City
20/10/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-1 HT 2-0	Sporting Kansas City
11/07/24 USA US Open Cup	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
08/07/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	3-2 HT 2-1	FC Dallas
01/06/23 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dallas	Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-5 L	0-3 L
Austin FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Colorado Rapids	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dallas

WLWWDLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
10/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	4	W

Sporting Kansas City

WLLWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	7	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (66%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 66%, draw 19%, Sporting Kansas City 14%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model expects 3.58 goals (FC Dallas 2.47 · Sporting Kansas City 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.