Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs Orlando City SC

Team pages: Atlanta United · Orlando City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Atlanta United1.9

Orlando City SC1.52

1X2

46% 24% 30%

Atlanta United Draw Orlando City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLWWWL

Orlando City SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLDLWD

Head-to-head

Atlanta United 2–1–3 Orlando City SC (6 last)

Orlando City SC4-1Atlanta United
Orlando City SC1-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United3-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-0Atlanta United
Orlando City SC1-0Atlanta United
Orlando City SC1-2Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1463 · Orlando City SC 1515

	Atlanta United	Draw	Orlando City SC
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando City SC (rating 1463 vs 1515).
H2H favours Orlando City SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	Orlando City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.6	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +7’	2.05	3.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 2–1–3 Orlando City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 USA US Open Cup	Orlando City SC	4-1 HT 4-0	Atlanta United
17/05/26 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-1 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
29/05/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	3-2 HT 1-2	Orlando City SC
27/04/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
24/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Orlando City SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
20/10/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 1-2	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	Orlando City SC
Minnesota United	2-1 W	3-3 D
New York Red Bulls	2-1 W	2-3 L
Philadelphia Union	2-3 L	4-3 W
Nashville SC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D

Orlando City SC

WDLWWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
14/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	4-3	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs Orlando City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (46%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 46%, draw 24%, Orlando City SC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs Orlando City SC?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Atlanta United 1.9 · Orlando City SC 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs Orlando City SC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.