Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

San Jose Earthquakes1.45

Los Angeles FC1.74

1X2

31% 25% 44%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDDWW

Los Angeles FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDDDWL

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 1–1–4 Los Angeles FC (6 last)

Los Angeles FC1-4San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes2-4Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC2-1San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC1-1San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC3-1San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC4-1San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1469 · Los Angeles FC 1501

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	31%	25%	44%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2.6 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.01
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.89 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +24’	3.00	3.70	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:46 +1’	2.99	3.74	2.17
05:43 +2’	3.03▲	3.79▲	2.19▲
22:02 +7’	3.01▼	3.89▲	2.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 1–1–4 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-4 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
14/09/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-4 HT 1-3	Los Angeles FC
13/04/25 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	2-1 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
25/01/25 World Club Friendlies	Los Angeles FC	1-1	San Jose Earthquakes
20/10/24 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	3-1 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
14/08/24 Leagues Cup	Los Angeles FC	4-1 HT 2-1	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Jose Earthquakes

LDLLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	3-1	3-2	3	10	W
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L

Los Angeles FC

WWDLLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-2	1-3	13	4	L
10/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
06/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-1	2-2	8	3	D
30/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
23/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Los Angeles FC win (44%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 31%, draw 25%, Los Angeles FC 44%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 3.19 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 1.45 · Los Angeles FC 1.74), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.