Football · USA MLS · 19/09, 01:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls

Team pages: New York City FC · New York Red Bulls

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

New York City FC1.86

New York Red Bulls1.09

1X2

55% 24% 21%

New York City FC Draw New York Red Bulls

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDDDLW

New York Red Bulls 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLDLW

Head-to-head

New York City FC 4–1–1 New York Red Bulls (6 last)

New York Red Bulls1-1New York City FC
New York Red Bulls1-3New York City FC
New York Red Bulls2-3New York City FC
New York City FC2-0New York Red Bulls
New York City FC0-2New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls1-5New York City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York City FC 1506 · New York Red Bulls 1431

	New York City FC	Draw	New York Red Bulls
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York City FC (rating 1506 vs 1431).
H2H favours New York City FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	New York Red Bulls
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Pinn 1.82 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.15
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:37 +1’	1.70	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:45 +49’	1.80	4.09	3.77
04:43 +50’	1.82▲	4.15▲	3.82▲
06:26 +32’	1.82	4.15	3.83▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 4–1–1 New York Red Bulls

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	1-1 HT 1-0	New York City FC
30/04/26 USA US Open Cup	New York Red Bulls	1-3 HT 1-2	New York City FC
28/09/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-3 HT 1-2	New York City FC
17/05/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-0 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
23/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	New York City FC	0-2 HT 0-2	New York Red Bulls
29/09/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	1-5 HT 1-4	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	25	16	6	3	50	21	54
2	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
3	New England Revolution	24	12	4	8	39	30	40
4	Charlotte FC	25	11	7	7	45	36	40
5	Chicago Fire	23	11	6	6	44	33	39
6	Orlando City SC	25	10	4	11	44	56	34
7	New York City FC	25	8	8	9	39	33	32
8	FC Cincinnati	24	8	8	8	52	59	32
9	Philadelphia Union	24	8	6	10	41	39	30
10	New York Red Bulls	25	8	6	11	33	48	30
11	DC United	24	6	11	7	30	37	29
12	Toronto FC	25	6	11	8	38	46	29
13	Columbus Crew	25	6	5	14	35	42	23
14	Atlanta United	25	6	5	14	29	43	23
15	CF Montreal	25	5	6	14	31	51	21

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Philadelphia Union	2-3 L	1-3 L
Chicago Fire	3-1 W	1-1 D
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New York City FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York City FC

WWDLLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
10/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	1-2	12	2	L
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W

New York Red Bulls

LLWLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (55%). Probabilities: New York City FC 55%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 21%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?

The model expects 2.95 goals (New York City FC 1.86 · New York Red Bulls 1.09), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.