Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC

Team pages: New England Revolution · Orlando City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

New England Revolution2.01

Orlando City SC1.48

1X2

49% 24% 27%

New England Revolution Draw Orlando City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

New England Revolution 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLWDWLW

Orlando City SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWDWWW

Head-to-head

New England Revolution 0–1–5 Orlando City SC (6 last)

New England Revolution3-4Orlando City SC
New England Revolution1-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-3New England Revolution
Orlando City SC3-0New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-3Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC3-1New England Revolution

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New England Revolution 1511 · Orlando City SC 1555

	New England Revolution	Draw	Orlando City SC
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando City SC (rating 1511 vs 1555).
H2H favours Orlando City SC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New England Revolution	Orlando City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.90

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +1’	1.90	3.90	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New England Revolution 0–1–5 Orlando City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/04/26 USA US Open Cup	New England Revolution	3-4 HT 2-2	Orlando City SC
20/07/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-2 HT 0-1	Orlando City SC
11/05/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-3 HT 2-2	New England Revolution
15/09/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-0 HT 2-0	New England Revolution
14/07/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-3 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
11/02/24 America Friendlies	Orlando City SC	3-1	New England Revolution

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	25	16	6	3	50	21	54
2	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
3	New England Revolution	24	12	4	8	39	30	40
4	Charlotte FC	25	11	7	7	45	36	40
5	Chicago Fire	23	11	6	6	44	33	39
6	Orlando City SC	25	10	4	11	44	56	34
7	New York City FC	25	8	8	9	39	33	32
8	FC Cincinnati	24	8	8	8	52	59	32
9	Philadelphia Union	24	8	6	10	41	39	30
10	New York Red Bulls	25	8	6	11	33	48	30
11	DC United	24	6	11	7	30	37	29
12	Toronto FC	25	6	11	8	38	46	29
13	Columbus Crew	25	6	5	14	35	42	23
14	Atlanta United	25	6	5	14	29	43	23
15	CF Montreal	25	5	6	14	31	51	21

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New England Revolution	Orlando City SC
Toronto FC	1-2 L	3-0 W
Atlanta United	4-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New England Revolution

DWDLLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
20/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	1	D
26/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	4-1	4	4	W
23/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Orlando City SC

WWLDLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New England Revolution win (49%). Probabilities: New England Revolution 49%, draw 24%, Orlando City SC 27%.

How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?

The model expects 3.49 goals (New England Revolution 2.01 · Orlando City SC 1.48), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.