Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs Charlotte FC

Team pages: DC United · Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

DC United1.45

Charlotte FC1.51

1X2

36% 26% 38%

DC United Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLLDWD

Charlotte FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWWDWD

Head-to-head

DC United 0–1–5 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Charlotte FC3-1DC United
DC United0-1Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC2-1DC United
DC United2-2Charlotte FC
DC United0-3Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC1-0DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1473 · Charlotte FC 1574

	DC United	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte FC (rating 1473 vs 1574).
H2H favours Charlotte FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.63
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:11 +10’	2.63	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +13’	2.39	3.59	2.75
09:27 +20’	2.51▲	3.63▲	2.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 0–1–5 Charlotte FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	3-1 HT 0-0	DC United
04/10/25 USA MLS	DC United	0-1 HT 0-1	Charlotte FC
17/07/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-1 HT 1-0	DC United
22/05/25 USA US Open Cup	DC United	2-2 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
20/10/24 USA MLS	DC United	0-3 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
16/06/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-0 HT 1-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	25	16	6	3	50	21	54
2	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
3	New England Revolution	24	12	4	8	39	30	40
4	Charlotte FC	25	11	7	7	45	36	40
5	Chicago Fire	23	11	6	6	44	33	39
6	Orlando City SC	25	10	4	11	44	56	34
7	New York City FC	25	8	8	9	39	33	32
8	FC Cincinnati	24	8	8	8	52	59	32
9	Philadelphia Union	24	8	6	10	41	39	30
10	New York Red Bulls	25	8	6	11	33	48	30
11	DC United	24	6	11	7	30	37	29
12	Toronto FC	25	6	11	8	38	46	29
13	Columbus Crew	25	6	5	14	35	42	23
14	Atlanta United	25	6	5	14	29	43	23
15	CF Montreal	25	5	6	14	31	51	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	Charlotte FC
Atlanta United	0-0 D	2-0 W
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	3-1 W
CF Montreal	1-1 D	2-1 W
Toronto FC	2-1 W	3-3 D
Houston Dynamo	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

DDWDDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D

Charlotte FC

DWLWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
10/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
06/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
30/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
23/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
20/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Charlotte FC win (38%). Probabilities: DC United 36%, draw 26%, Charlotte FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 2.96 goals (DC United 1.45 · Charlotte FC 1.51), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.