Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs Columbus Crew

Team pages: DC United · Columbus Crew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

DC United1.72

Columbus Crew1.6

1X2

40% 26% 35%

DC United Draw Columbus Crew

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDDLLD

Columbus Crew 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWLWDLLLL

Head-to-head

DC United 0–2–4 Columbus Crew (6 last)

Columbus Crew2-1DC United
DC United1-2Columbus Crew
DC United2-2Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew1-1DC United
DC United0-2Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew2-0DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1465 · Columbus Crew 1469

	DC United	Draw	Columbus Crew
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	39%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Columbus Crew: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	Columbus Crew
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.8	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +7’	2.35	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 0–2–4 Columbus Crew

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-1 HT 1-0	DC United
30/03/25 USA MLS	DC United	1-2 HT 1-1	Columbus Crew
29/09/24 USA MLS	DC United	2-2 HT 1-0	Columbus Crew
07/04/24 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	1-1 HT 0-0	DC United
09/04/23 USA MLS	DC United	0-2 HT 0-1	Columbus Crew
05/03/23 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-0 HT 2-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	Columbus Crew
Charlotte FC	1-3 L	1-3 L
New England Revolution	0-3 L	1-3 L
CF Montreal	1-1 D	1-2 L
Nashville SC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

LDDDWDDLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L

Columbus Crew

LDWLWDLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
20/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
16/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	13	3	L
02/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
26/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
23/07	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
24/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
17/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-2	2-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs Columbus Crew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DC United win (40%). Probabilities: DC United 40%, draw 26%, Columbus Crew 35%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs Columbus Crew?

The model expects 3.31 goals (DC United 1.72 · Columbus Crew 1.6), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs Columbus Crew?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.