Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 01:30

Prediction: CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC

Team pages: CF Montreal · Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

CF Montreal1.7

Charlotte FC1.54

1X2

41% 25% 34%

CF Montreal Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Montreal 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDDWDL

Charlotte FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWLWDWW

Head-to-head

CF Montreal 3–1–2 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Charlotte FC1-4CF Montreal
CF Montreal0-1Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC2-0CF Montreal
CF Montreal2-1Charlotte FC
CF Montreal2-0Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC0-0CF Montreal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1498 · Charlotte FC 1549

	CF Montreal	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte FC (rating 1498 vs 1549).
H2H favours CF Montreal: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Montreal	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.2	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +6’	2.30	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 3–1–2 Charlotte FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
28/09/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-4 HT 1-1	CF Montreal
13/04/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	0-1 HT 0-1	Charlotte FC
06/10/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-0 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
15/09/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-1 HT 2-1	Charlotte FC
16/07/23 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-0 HT 2-0	Charlotte FC
25/06/23 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	0-0 HT 0-0	CF Montreal

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Montreal	Charlotte FC
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	3-1 W
DC United	1-1 D	3-1 W
New England Revolution	2-2 D	1-0 W
Toronto FC	0-0 D	3-3 D
Chicago Fire	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Montreal

LDDLLDDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	1-7	6	3	L
23/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
20/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
16/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
26/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
23/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
17/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
24/05	DC United USA MLS	1-2	4-4	4	7	D
16/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	0-2	16	7	L

Charlotte FC

LWWDWLWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
23/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
20/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Montreal win (41%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 41%, draw 25%, Charlotte FC 34%.

How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (CF Montreal 1.7 · Charlotte FC 1.54), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.