Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 01:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs New England Revolution

Team pages: New York City FC · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

New York City FC1.55

New England Revolution1.18

1X2

45% 27% 28%

New York City FC Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDLLDD

New England Revolution 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWDLLWDW

Head-to-head

New York City FC 3–2–1 New England Revolution (6 last)

New England Revolution1-1New York City FC
New England Revolution2-0New York City FC
New York City FC2-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-1New York City FC
New England Revolution0-1New York City FC
New York City FC2-0New England Revolution

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York City FC 1489 · New England Revolution 1518

	New York City FC	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	45%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York City FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +6’	2.05	3.60	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 3–2–1 New England Revolution

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-1 HT 1-1	New York City FC
20/04/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-0 HT 1-0	New York City FC
16/03/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	New England Revolution
10/08/24 Leagues Cup	New England Revolution	1-1 HT 1-1	New York City FC
26/05/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-1 HT 0-0	New York City FC
14/04/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-0 HT 0-0	New England Revolution

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	New England Revolution
Toronto FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	3-1 W
Charlotte FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: New York City FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York City FC

WDLWWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
14/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	9	W

New England Revolution

WLDWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
20/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	1	D
26/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	4-1	4	4	W
23/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
24/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
17/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (45%). Probabilities: New York City FC 45%, draw 27%, New England Revolution 28%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 2.73 goals (New York City FC 1.55 · New England Revolution 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.