Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

Philadelphia Union2.49

FC Cincinnati1.66

1X2

55% 21% 24%

Philadelphia Union Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWDDW

FC Cincinnati 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 3–3 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

FC Cincinnati0-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union4-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati4-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2-4Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati4-3Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1523 · FC Cincinnati 1513

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	55%	20%	24%
Market	54%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 2	2.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.3	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +6’	1.73	4.20	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 3–0–3 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/08/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	0-1 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
02/03/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	4-1 HT 2-0	FC Cincinnati
07/02/25 World Club Friendlies	FC Cincinnati	4-1	Philadelphia Union
20/10/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Cincinnati
14/08/24 Leagues Cup	FC Cincinnati	2-4 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
20/06/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	4-3 HT 1-1	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami CF	2-2 D	3-5 L
New York City FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Seattle Sounders	1-0 W	1-1 D
Columbus Crew	1-1 D	1-2 L
Orlando City SC	3-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

LDLWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L

FC Cincinnati

LDWWLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W
24/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-1	6-2	6	5	W
17/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
14/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	3-5	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (55%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 55%, draw 21%, FC Cincinnati 24%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 4.15 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.49 · FC Cincinnati 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.