Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 01:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs Nashville SC

Team pages: Toronto FC · Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Toronto FC1.27

Nashville SC1.49

1X2

32% 27% 42%

Toronto FC Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDLDWDWD

Nashville SC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 1–1–4 Nashville SC (6 last)

Nashville SC1-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-2Nashville SC
Toronto FC1-2Nashville SC
Nashville SC2-0Toronto FC
Nashville SC1-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-1Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1503 · Nashville SC 1565

	Toronto FC	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	31%	28%	41%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1503 vs 1565).
H2H favours Nashville SC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +6’	2.90	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 1–1–4 Nashville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
25/05/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
20/06/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-2 HT 1-0	Nashville SC
16/05/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
02/02/24 World Club Friendlies	Nashville SC	1-2	Toronto FC
11/06/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	Nashville SC
New York City FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Inter Miami CF	2-1 W	4-1 W
DC United	1-2 L	2-2 D
CF Montreal	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nashville SC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC

LLDDLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L

Nashville SC

WWWWLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	4-0	6	5	W
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
23/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nashville SC win (42%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 32%, draw 27%, Nashville SC 42%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Toronto FC 1.27 · Nashville SC 1.49), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.