Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 02:30

Prediction: Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids

Team pages: Austin FC · Colorado Rapids

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Austin FC1.29

Colorado Rapids1.2

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Austin FC Draw Colorado Rapids

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Austin FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Colorado Rapids 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Austin FC 2–4 Colorado Rapids (6 last)

Colorado Rapids1-0Austin FC
Colorado Rapids0-2Austin FC
Austin FC0-1Colorado Rapids
Austin FC3-2Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids2-0Austin FC
Colorado Rapids1-0Austin FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Austin FC 1475 · Colorado Rapids 1514

	Austin FC	Draw	Colorado Rapids
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	39%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Colorado Rapids: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Austin FC	Colorado Rapids
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:24 +3’	2.40	3.50	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 2–0–4 Colorado Rapids

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	1-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
08/06/25 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	0-2 HT 0-1	Austin FC
09/03/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Colorado Rapids
20/10/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Colorado Rapids
16/06/24 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	2-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC
01/10/23 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	1-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	22	9	7	6	41	37	34
6	St. Louis City SC	22	9	7	6	33	30	34
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Austin FC	Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas	1-2 L	1-2 L
St. Louis City SC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Sporting Kansas City	1-2 L	2-0 W
San Diego FC	0-5 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Colorado Rapids (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Austin FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L

Colorado Rapids

WLLWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
23/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
20/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
16/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
02/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
26/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
23/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
24/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
17/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
14/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-0	5	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Austin FC win (38%). Probabilities: Austin FC 38%, draw 28%, Colorado Rapids 34%.

How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Austin FC 1.29 · Colorado Rapids 1.2), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Austin FC vs Colorado Rapids?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.