Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: Houston Dynamo · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Houston Dynamo1.79

FC Cincinnati1.17

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Houston Dynamo Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLDDWL

FC Cincinnati 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDLLD

Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 0–3–2 FC Cincinnati (5 last)

Houston Dynamo1-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-1Houston Dynamo
FC Cincinnati2-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati3-2Houston Dynamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1543 · FC Cincinnati 1510

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 2-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.4	2.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.90

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.23 ★
2	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +4’	1.80	3.90	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +458’	1.79	4.23	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 0–3–2 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/01/26 America Friendlies	Houston Dynamo	1-1	FC Cincinnati
30/01/25 World Club Friendlies	FC Cincinnati	1-1	Houston Dynamo
26/02/23 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-1 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo
04/07/21 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Cincinnati
07/07/19 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	3-2 HT 2-0	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	FC Cincinnati
San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 L	4-2 W
Charlotte FC	0-0 D	3-3 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cincinnati (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dynamo

WWWWWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
10/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W

FC Cincinnati

WWLWDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W
24/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-1	6-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (51%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 51%, draw 25%, FC Cincinnati 24%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.79 · FC Cincinnati 1.17), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.