Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 02:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy

Team pages: Minnesota United · LA Galaxy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Minnesota United2.05

LA Galaxy1.12

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Minnesota United Draw LA Galaxy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDDDLWDLLL

LA Galaxy 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDLWLD

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 1–1–4 LA Galaxy (6 last)

LA Galaxy1-2Minnesota United
LA Galaxy2-1Minnesota United
Minnesota United2-2LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy2-1Minnesota United
LA Galaxy6-2Minnesota United
LA Galaxy2-1Minnesota United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1463 · LA Galaxy 1468

	Minnesota United	Draw	LA Galaxy
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	58%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours LA Galaxy: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	LA Galaxy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.1	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.67
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.54 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +6’	1.60	4.10	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:09 +192’	1.67	4.54	4.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 1–1–4 LA Galaxy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	1-2 HT 0-0	Minnesota United
19/10/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-1 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
22/03/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	2-2 HT 1-1	LA Galaxy
12/02/25 World Club Friendlies	LA Galaxy	2-1	Minnesota United
25/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	LA Galaxy	6-2 HT 3-2	Minnesota United
08/07/24 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	2-1 HT 1-0	Minnesota United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	LA Galaxy
St. Louis City SC	2-4 L	1-3 L
FC Dallas	1-2 L	0-0 D
San Jose Earthquakes	5-1 W	1-0 W
San Diego FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Minnesota United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Minnesota United

LDDDLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	2-4	5	3	L
10/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
06/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-3	4-5	3	4	L
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L

LA Galaxy

LDDLWDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
10/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
06/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
30/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
23/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (58%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 58%, draw 23%, LA Galaxy 19%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Minnesota United 2.05 · LA Galaxy 1.12), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.