Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 02:30

Prediction: FC Dallas vs Austin FC

Team pages: FC Dallas · Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

FC Dallas2.02

Austin FC1.05

1X2

59% 23% 18%

FC Dallas Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Dallas 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLDWWW

Austin FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDWDD

Head-to-head

FC Dallas 4–1–1 Austin FC (6 last)

Austin FC1-2FC Dallas
FC Dallas2-0Austin FC
Austin FC1-1FC Dallas
FC Dallas3-1Austin FC
FC Dallas2-1Austin FC
Austin FC2-1FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Dallas 1561 · Austin FC 1495

	FC Dallas	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1561 vs 1495).
H2H favours FC Dallas: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Dallas	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.2	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.70 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	1.57	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +38’	1.70	4.03	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Dallas 4–1–1 Austin FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Dallas
14/09/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC
17/08/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Dallas
18/07/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-1 HT 1-1	Austin FC
12/05/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-1 HT 1-0	Austin FC
31/03/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Dallas	Austin FC
Portland Timbers	2-1 W	2-1 W
St. Louis City SC	3-3 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Dallas

DLDWWLDWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	7	1	W
10/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-2	4-3	3	1	W
31/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D

Austin FC

LWLLLWDWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Dallas vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Dallas win (59%). Probabilities: FC Dallas 59%, draw 23%, Austin FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Dallas vs Austin FC?

The model expects 3.07 goals (FC Dallas 2.02 · Austin FC 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Dallas vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.