Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Sporting Kansas City1.33

Philadelphia Union2.32

1X2

20% 22% 58%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLLW

Philadelphia Union 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 1–3–2 Philadelphia Union (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City1-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union0-0Sporting Kansas City
Philadelphia Union3-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-0Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2-0Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-1Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1443 · Philadelphia Union 1554

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Philadelphia Union
Our model	20%	21%	59%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1443 vs 1554).
H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.3	2.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.20

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +6’	4.75	4.20	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 1–3–2 Philadelphia Union

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
02/04/23 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
31/07/20 USA MLS is Back Tournament	Philadelphia Union	3-1 HT 3-1	Sporting Kansas City
10/03/19 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-0 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
23/09/18 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
07/07/17 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Kansas City

LWLLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
06/09	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-3	3-4	7	1	L
30/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
24/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L

Philadelphia Union

LWWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union win (58%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 20%, draw 22%, Philadelphia Union 58%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Sporting Kansas City 1.33 · Philadelphia Union 2.32), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.