Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 02:30

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs Toronto FC

Team pages: St. Louis City SC · Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

St. Louis City SC2.24

Toronto FC1.21

1X2

59% 22% 18%

St. Louis City SC Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWDW

Toronto FC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWDWDDWL

Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 1–0 Toronto FC (1 last)

Toronto FC0-1St. Louis City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1592 · Toronto FC 1507

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1592 vs 1507).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.9	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.71 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +6’	1.60	4.10	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +574’	1.71	4.20	4.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 1–0–0 Toronto FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/07/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-1 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St. Louis City SC

WWDWDWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-1	4-2	6	3	W
10/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	4	W

Toronto FC

DLDWDWDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
10/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	1	W
06/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	4	D
30/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (59%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 59%, draw 22%, Toronto FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.45 goals (St. Louis City SC 2.24 · Toronto FC 1.21), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.