Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 02:30

Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami CF

Team pages: Chicago Fire · Inter Miami CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Chicago Fire2.29

Inter Miami CF2.02

1X2

44% 22% 34%

Chicago Fire Draw Inter Miami CF

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWDD

Inter Miami CF 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLDLW

Head-to-head

Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Inter Miami CF (6 last)

Inter Miami CF3-2Chicago Fire
Inter Miami CF3-5Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-0Inter Miami CF
Chicago Fire1-4Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-1Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire4-1Inter Miami CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1579 · Inter Miami CF 1519

	Chicago Fire	Draw	Inter Miami CF
Our model	45%	21%	34%
Market	43%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire (rating 1579 vs 1519).
H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire	Inter Miami CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:09 +18’	2.15	4.00	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–1–3 Inter Miami CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	3-2 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire
01/10/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	3-5 HT 1-3	Chicago Fire
13/04/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-0 HT 0-0	Inter Miami CF
01/09/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-4 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF
21/07/24 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	2-1 HT 1-0	Chicago Fire
05/10/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	4-1 HT 0-0	Inter Miami CF

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	23	16	5	2	47	17	53
2	Inter Miami CF	22	12	6	4	56	41	42
3	Chicago Fire	21	11	4	6	39	28	37
4	New England Revolution	22	11	4	7	36	27	37
5	Charlotte FC	22	10	5	7	40	32	35
6	FC Cincinnati	22	8	7	7	49	51	31
7	New York City FC	23	7	8	8	36	31	29
8	New York Red Bulls	22	7	5	10	32	46	26
9	Orlando City SC	22	7	4	11	37	54	25
10	Toronto FC	22	5	10	7	32	38	25
11	DC United	22	5	10	7	28	36	25
12	Philadelphia Union	22	6	6	10	34	39	24
13	Atlanta United	22	6	3	13	25	38	21
14	CF Montreal	22	5	6	11	30	46	21
15	Columbus Crew	22	5	5	12	31	39	20

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Fire	Inter Miami CF
Portland Timbers	2-1 W	2-0 W
Toronto FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
CF Montreal	2-0 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Inter Miami CF (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Fire

WWWLLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W

Inter Miami CF

WWWWWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	7-1	6	3	W
23/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
20/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-1	2-2	1	8	D
16/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
02/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	2-2	5	3	D
26/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	3-2	8	2	W
25/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	4-4	6-4	4	9	W
18/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
14/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	5-3	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire win (44%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 44%, draw 22%, Inter Miami CF 34%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami CF?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Chicago Fire 2.29 · Inter Miami CF 2.02), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami CF?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.