Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 02:30
Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake
Team pages: Houston Dynamo · Real Salt Lake
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Houston Dynamo1.82
Real Salt Lake1.02
1X2
Houston Dynamo
Draw
Real Salt Lake
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Houston Dynamo
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Real Salt Lake
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Houston Dynamo
2–4
Real Salt Lake
(6 last)
- Real Salt Lake3-0Houston Dynamo
- Real Salt Lake1-0Houston Dynamo
- Houston Dynamo1-2Real Salt Lake
- Houston Dynamo4-1Real Salt Lake
- Houston Dynamo3-0Real Salt Lake
- Real Salt Lake3-2Houston Dynamo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1560 · Real Salt Lake 1472
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | Real Salt Lake | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1560 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Houston Dynamo | Real Salt Lake | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 1.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.4 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 2–0–4 Real Salt Lake
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 USA MLS | Real Salt Lake | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo |
| 13/07/25 USA MLS | Real Salt Lake | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo |
| 16/03/25 USA MLS | Houston Dynamo | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Real Salt Lake |
| 15/09/24 USA MLS | Houston Dynamo | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Real Salt Lake |
| 06/08/24 Leagues Cup | Houston Dynamo | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Real Salt Lake |
| 04/07/24 USA MLS | Real Salt Lake | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Houston Dynamo |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 18 | 43 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 30 | 26 | 39 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 | 22 | 36 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 33 | 34 |
| 5 | FC Dallas | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 37 | 34 |
| 6 | St. Louis City SC | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 22 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 31 |
| 8 | San Diego FC | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 40 | 33 | 30 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 30 | 32 | 29 |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 34 | 33 | 28 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 39 | 39 | 28 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 29 | 26 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 35 | 26 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 41 | 24 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 54 | 15 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Houston Dynamo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 20/08 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Austin FC USA MLS |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 23/07 | DC United USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Real Salt Lake
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 23/08 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/08 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
1-3 | 3-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 12 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (55%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 55%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 20%.
How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.82 · Real Salt Lake 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs Real Salt Lake?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.