Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 02:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs FC Dallas

Team pages: Minnesota United · FC Dallas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Minnesota United1.73

FC Dallas1.25

1X2

48% 26% 27%

Minnesota United Draw FC Dallas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLDDDLWD

FC Dallas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDWWLD

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 2–3–1 FC Dallas (6 last)

FC Dallas0-1Minnesota United
FC Dallas1-2Minnesota United
Minnesota United0-0FC Dallas
FC Dallas5-4Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-1FC Dallas
Minnesota United0-0FC Dallas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1489 · FC Dallas 1525

	Minnesota United	Draw	FC Dallas
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Minnesota United: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	FC Dallas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.7	1.9 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:25 +2’	1.95	3.70	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 2–3–1 FC Dallas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 USA MLS	FC Dallas	0-1 HT 0-1	Minnesota United
05/07/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	1-2 HT 0-1	Minnesota United
20/04/25 USA MLS	Minnesota United	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas
20/06/24 USA MLS	FC Dallas	5-4 HT 2-1	Minnesota United
09/06/24 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Dallas
01/05/23 USA MLS	Minnesota United	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	22	9	7	6	41	37	34
6	St. Louis City SC	22	9	7	6	33	30	34
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes	5-1 W	3-2 W
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	4-3 W
San Diego FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 D	0-5 L
Colorado Rapids	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Minnesota United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Minnesota United

LLDLDDDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	8	4	D
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L

FC Dallas

LWWDLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
23/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
20/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	3-1	4-3	3	6	W
17/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
02/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
23/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs FC Dallas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (48%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 48%, draw 26%, FC Dallas 27%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs FC Dallas?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Minnesota United 1.73 · FC Dallas 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs FC Dallas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.