Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 04:30

Prediction: Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: Portland Timbers · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Portland Timbers1.95

St. Louis City SC1.5

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Portland Timbers Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLWDL

St. Louis City SC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWDWD

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers 2–2–2 St. Louis City SC (6 last)

St. Louis City SC2-1Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers2-1St. Louis City SC
Portland Timbers4-4St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC3-1Portland Timbers
St. Louis City SC0-0Portland Timbers
St. Louis City SC1-2Portland Timbers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1503 · St. Louis City SC 1567

	Portland Timbers	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1503 vs 1567).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:23 +5’	2.00	3.75	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 2–2–2 St. Louis City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/07/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-1 HT 0-1	Portland Timbers
09/06/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	2-1 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC
25/08/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	4-4 HT 1-3	St. Louis City SC
10/08/24 Leagues Cup	St. Louis City SC	3-1 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers
09/06/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers
30/04/23 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	1-2 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	22	9	7	6	41	37	34
6	St. Louis City SC	22	9	7	6	33	30	34
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers	St. Louis City SC
Austin FC	1-2 L	3-0 W
Real Salt Lake	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Dallas	2-2 D	3-3 D
San Jose Earthquakes	1-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Timbers

LLWDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
23/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
20/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-1	0	3	W
17/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
02/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	14	4	W
23/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
18/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	4	L

St. Louis City SC

DWWWWDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (47%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 47%, draw 24%, St. Louis City SC 29%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Portland Timbers 1.95 · St. Louis City SC 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.