Prediction: Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United
Team pages: Portland Timbers · Atlanta United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.77Total
Portland Timbers2.18
Atlanta United1.58
1X2
Portland Timbers
Draw
Atlanta United
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Portland Timbers
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Atlanta United
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Portland Timbers
1–2–3
Atlanta United
(6 last)
- Atlanta United5-1Portland Timbers
- Portland Timbers2-1Atlanta United
- Portland Timbers0-2Atlanta United
- Atlanta United2-0Portland Timbers
- Atlanta United1-1Portland Timbers
- Portland Timbers1-1Atlanta United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1527 · Atlanta United 1484
| Portland Timbers | Draw | Atlanta United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers (rating 1527 vs 1484).
- H2H favours Atlanta United: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portland Timbers | Atlanta United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 1.5 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.1 | 2.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 1–2–3 Atlanta United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/23 USA MLS | Atlanta United | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Portland Timbers |
| 04/09/22 USA MLS | Portland Timbers | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United |
| 19/08/19 USA MLS | Portland Timbers | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atlanta United |
| 09/12/18 USA MLS Play-Offs | Atlanta United | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Portland Timbers |
| 24/06/18 USA MLS | Atlanta United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Portland Timbers |
| 14/05/17 USA MLS | Portland Timbers | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Atlanta United |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 21 | 46 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 43 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 43 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City SC | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | 41 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 27 | 40 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 32 | 35 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 32 |
| 9 | San Diego FC | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 37 | 30 |
| 10 | LA Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 29 |
| 12 | Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | 29 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 43 | 26 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | 18 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portland Timbers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/09 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
3-2 | 5-4 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 20/08 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 17/08 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 23/07 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
Atlanta United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | DC United USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 10/09 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 30/08 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/08 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (50%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 50%, draw 23%, Atlanta United 27%.
How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United?
The model expects 3.77 goals (Portland Timbers 2.18 · Atlanta United 1.58), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.