Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 03:30

Prediction: Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: Nashville SC · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Nashville SC1.91

Chicago Fire1.18

1X2

54% 24% 23%

Nashville SC Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nashville SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWDLD

Chicago Fire 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWDDDD

Head-to-head

Nashville SC 4–2 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire1-0Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-4Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-2Nashville SC
Nashville SC7-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-3Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-0Chicago Fire

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nashville SC 1512 · Chicago Fire 1564

	Nashville SC	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	53%	24%	22%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire (rating 1512 vs 1564).
H2H favours Nashville SC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nashville SC	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.81 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +8’	1.73	4.00	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:43 +39’	1.80	3.90	3.97
00:44 +36’	1.81▲	3.95▲	4.02▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nashville SC 4–0–2 Chicago Fire

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-0 HT 1-0	Nashville SC
20/01/26 America Friendlies	Nashville SC	1-4 HT 0-2	Chicago Fire
15/06/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-2 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
27/04/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	7-2 HT 5-0	Chicago Fire
20/10/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-3 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
19/09/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Chicago Fire

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	25	16	6	3	50	21	54
2	Inter Miami CF	25	12	9	4	61	46	45
3	New England Revolution	24	12	4	8	39	30	40
4	Charlotte FC	25	11	7	7	45	36	40
5	Chicago Fire	23	11	6	6	44	33	39
6	Orlando City SC	25	10	4	11	44	56	34
7	New York City FC	25	8	8	9	39	33	32
8	FC Cincinnati	24	8	8	8	52	59	32
9	Philadelphia Union	24	8	6	10	41	39	30
10	New York Red Bulls	25	8	6	11	33	48	30
11	DC United	24	6	11	7	30	37	29
12	Toronto FC	25	6	11	8	38	46	29
13	Columbus Crew	25	6	5	14	35	42	23
14	Atlanta United	25	6	5	14	29	43	23
15	CF Montreal	25	5	6	14	31	51	21

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nashville SC	Chicago Fire
Inter Miami CF	2-2 D	1-1 D
Toronto FC	1-2 L	4-4 D
New York City FC	0-0 D	1-3 L
New York Red Bulls	1-0 W	1-1 D
Orlando City SC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nashville SC

WLDWWWWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
10/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	1	L
05/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-0	4-0	6	5	W
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
23/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Chicago Fire

WLLWWWDDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	4	D
29/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nashville SC win (54%). Probabilities: Nashville SC 54%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 23%.

How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Nashville SC 1.91 · Chicago Fire 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.