Football · USA MLS · 20/09, 03:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · Vancouver Whitecaps

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Real Salt Lake1.16

Vancouver Whitecaps1.88

1X2

22% 24% 53%

Real Salt Lake Draw Vancouver Whitecaps

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLLDLL

Vancouver Whitecaps 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 3–3 Vancouver Whitecaps (6 last)

Vancouver Whitecaps1-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-3Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps2-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps1-2Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-1Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1433 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1516

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	Vancouver Whitecaps
Our model	22%	25%	53%
Market	23%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vancouver Whitecaps (rating 1433 vs 1516).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.8	2.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.90

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.85 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +25’	4.10	3.90	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +39’	3.77	3.88	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 3–0–3 Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
25/05/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-3 HT 2-2	Vancouver Whitecaps
04/05/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	2-1 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
20/10/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
24/03/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-2 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
24/09/23 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 0-1	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	25	13	4	8	32	28	43
3	FC Dallas	25	12	7	6	49	42	43
4	San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	44	36	41
5	St. Louis City SC	25	11	8	6	42	35	41
6	Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	41	27	40
7	Colorado Rapids	25	11	2	12	33	32	35
8	Portland Timbers	25	9	5	11	47	47	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	LA Galaxy	26	7	9	10	31	40	30
11	Real Salt Lake	24	8	5	11	37	39	29
12	Minnesota United	25	7	8	10	37	43	29
13	Seattle Sounders	23	7	7	9	25	30	28
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	24	5	3	16	26	59	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Salt Lake	Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo	1-2 L	0-1 L
Los Angeles FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
FC Dallas	3-4 L	5-0 W
Minnesota United	1-1 D	0-0 D
St. Louis City SC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

LLDDLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L

Vancouver Whitecaps

WLDDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
06/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	6	7	L
30/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver Whitecaps win (53%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 22%, draw 24%, Vancouver Whitecaps 53%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Real Salt Lake 1.16 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1.88), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.