Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 04:30

Prediction: San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

Team pages: San Diego FC · San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

San Diego FC2.21

San Jose Earthquakes1.36

1X2

56% 22% 22%

San Diego FC Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

San Diego FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDWLWW

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLLLD

Head-to-head

San Diego FC 2–2 San Jose Earthquakes (4 last)

San Jose Earthquakes3-0San Diego FC
San Diego FC2-0San Jose Earthquakes
San Diego FC0-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-2San Diego FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Diego FC 1529 · San Jose Earthquakes 1423

	San Diego FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Diego FC (rating 1529 vs 1423).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Diego FC	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X4.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:17 +10’	1.67	4.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Diego FC 2–0–2 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	3-0 HT 3-0	San Diego FC
24/01/26 America Friendlies	San Diego FC	2-0	San Jose Earthquakes
28/09/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	0-1 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
18/08/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-2 HT 0-0	San Diego FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	22	9	7	6	41	37	34
6	St. Louis City SC	22	9	7	6	33	30	34
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Diego FC	San Jose Earthquakes
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	0-1 L
Portland Timbers	1-3 L	3-1 W
Minnesota United	1-1 D	1-5 L
FC Dallas	1-0 W	2-3 L
FC Cincinnati	3-3 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: San Diego FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Diego FC

WDLLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
20/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
02/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/07	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
23/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
24/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	2-4	2	6	L
17/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	3-3	7	4	D
14/05	Austin FC USA MLS	2-0	5-0	6	1	W

San Jose Earthquakes

LLWLDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L
14/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Diego FC win (56%). Probabilities: San Diego FC 56%, draw 22%, San Jose Earthquakes 22%.

How many goals are expected in San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 3.57 goals (San Diego FC 2.21 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.36), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.