Football · USA MLS · 10/09, 04:30

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA Galaxy

Team pages: Vancouver Whitecaps · LA Galaxy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Vancouver Whitecaps2.29

LA Galaxy0.69

1X2

73% 17% 9%

Vancouver Whitecaps Draw LA Galaxy

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver Whitecaps 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWLWW

LA Galaxy 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDLWDL

Head-to-head

Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1–3 LA Galaxy (6 last)

LA Galaxy1-1Vancouver Whitecaps
LA Galaxy3-0Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps2-1LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy4-2Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps1-3LA Galaxy
LA Galaxy1-2Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver Whitecaps 1528 · LA Galaxy 1481

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	LA Galaxy
Our model	73%	19%	9%
Market	74%	16%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vancouver Whitecaps (rating 1528 vs 1481).
H2H favours LA Galaxy: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver Whitecaps	LA Galaxy
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.8	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.75

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:26 +2’	1.27	5.75	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver Whitecaps 2–1–3 LA Galaxy

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	1-1 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
05/07/25 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	3-0 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
02/03/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	2-1 HT 1-1	LA Galaxy
22/09/24 USA MLS	LA Galaxy	4-2 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
14/04/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	1-3 HT 0-0	LA Galaxy
31/07/23 Leagues Cup	LA Galaxy	1-2 HT 1-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	21	13	4	4	48	18	43
2	Houston Dynamo	22	12	3	7	30	26	39
3	Los Angeles FC	23	10	6	7	36	22	36
4	San Jose Earthquakes	22	10	4	8	39	33	34
5	FC Dallas	22	9	7	6	41	37	34
6	St. Louis City SC	22	9	7	6	33	30	34
7	Colorado Rapids	22	10	1	11	31	28	31
8	San Diego FC	22	8	6	8	40	33	30
9	Minnesota United	22	7	8	7	30	32	29
10	Real Salt Lake	21	8	4	9	34	33	28
11	Portland Timbers	22	8	4	10	39	39	28
12	Seattle Sounders	21	7	5	9	24	29	26
13	LA Galaxy	23	6	8	9	28	35	26
14	Austin FC	22	6	6	10	28	41	24
15	Sporting Kansas City	22	4	3	15	20	54	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver Whitecaps	LA Galaxy
FC Dallas	5-0 W	0-0 D
Houston Dynamo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Seattle Sounders	2-0 W	2-0 W
Los Angeles FC	1-1 D	0-3 L
San Diego FC	4-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver Whitecaps (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vancouver Whitecaps

WLWLDDWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
14/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-2	6	7	W

LA Galaxy

WDLLDDLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
23/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
20/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
16/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
02/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
26/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
18/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	9	3	L
24/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
17/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	2-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA Galaxy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (73%). Probabilities: Vancouver Whitecaps 73%, draw 17%, LA Galaxy 9%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA Galaxy?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Vancouver Whitecaps 2.29 · LA Galaxy 0.69), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs LA Galaxy?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.